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The younger, more progressive votes come in late. Longstanding trends tell us that the second ballot drop doesn’t mean shit, but the third and fourth drops are a tell all in a tight race.
And … Fuck! King County Elections only counted 30,000 more ballots in Seattle. What’s normally a revealing ballot drop isn’t as decisive (fewer votes counted=less revealing) and it’s also not clear when this batch of votes came in and where they came from. This might drag into next week.
AND OUR NEXT MAYOR IS?
Ha! Good one. We don’t know yet.
Wilson shrank the gap between her and Harrell by almost 2.5 points in this ballot drop. She now has 46.93 percent of the vote to Bruce Harrell’s 52.64 percent. But the overall total isn’t going to tell you as much as the percentage of the vote with each drop.
To beat incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell, Katie Wilson needed just over 54 percent of the votes counted after Wednesday. She pulled in more than 51 percent of today’s drop. That’s less, obviously. Wilson needs roughly 55 percent of all remaining votes to win.
Where are the big leaps? The bounds? From anyone! This is all very unsatisfying. We wanted a gladiatorial finish. This feels like Risk.
A GREEK CHORUS OF POLITICAL CONSULTANTS
Surely, someone must be able to read these tea leaves. Fuck, where’s Rachael Savage when you need her? Oh, right, rotting away with 19 percent of the vote. We asked these guys (gender neutral) instead.
Stephen Paolini, who is affiliated with Katie Wilson’s PAC: “Sadly today’s drop is the worst outcome. Which is to say, not conclusive or enough to change my perspective that this race currently leans Wilson, but we don’t know for sure. To feel comfortable that Katie is going to win, I needed to see 54 percent of today’s drop go her way… On today’s trajectory she’d fall just shy of winning, but I’d absolutely expect an uptick in tomorrow’s drop of primarily ballot box voters.”
Ben Anderstone, who worked on Sara Nelson’s campaign: “Not quite what she needs … but it’s possible today’s swing might have been slightly muted compared to future days.”
Michael Fertakis, consultant to Girmay Zahilay and Stephanie Fain: “While it’s good that she’s picking up votes, if I were her team I’d much prefer to have seen at least 53 percent. This is going to be a nail biter of an election.”
Crystal Fincher, host of the Hacks & Wonks podcast: “I think it’s fair to say that Katie supporters were hoping for a slightly bigger percentage, and everyone wanted a bigger drop of ballots counted in today’s tally. Getting the latter may have addressed the former. Basically, we still don’t know anything, but this looks like it will end up very close (maybe even in a recount) and we won’t know where things stand until next week.”
YES KINGS (OF THE COUNTY)!
Once again, Girmay Zahilay added more votes to his pile in the race for King County Executive. He’s sitting at 51.73 percent of the vote, an increase of 1.17 percent over Wednesday’s numbers. Claudia Balducci lost 1.12 percent of her vote share, sending her back to the shadow realm of 47.05 percent. At this point, it’s really looking like Zahilay will maintain his lead in this tight race. Ballots still to come should lean more progressive and Zahilay seems to be the pick for younger, more progressive, sexier voters (hello, Stranger readers). That’s not super promising for Balducci who’s been trying to appeal to less young, less sexy, suburbanites since the primary.
DON’T LET THIS ASSHOLE WIN, THE ASSHOLE IS NOT WINNING
Oh, happy day! In the race for Legislative District 33, incumbent Rep. Edwin Obras inched ahead of that faux-Democrat and real chump Kevin Schilling. It’s still a dead heat, but Obras has 49.69 percent to Burien Mayor Schilling’s 48.62 percent. His share of the vote increased 1.2 percent Thursday. Schilling lost 1.1 percent. Every vote counts, people! We do not want a ghoul masquerading as a Democrat in the Legislature when it comes time to hard conversations around budgets and possible changes to that pesky regressive tax code. The average Dem is bad enough!