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Katie Wilson has 50.08 percent of the vote. The political consultants say this race is over, and she’s won. So is this over?
After yesterday’s drop, Wilson only needed about 50 percent of the remaining vote to win. Today, she got more than 60 percent. She’s up 1,346 votes with 1,355 ballots left uncounted.
Before we peace out of Brucelandia, we’re technically still within machine recount territory. Would that recount change the outcome?
CONSULTING THE CONSULTANTS
We returned to the crystal ball to speak with our political experts for a final (?) time this election (maybe not, this is endless.) They call it for Katie.
Crystal Fincher, political consultant and the host of the Hacks & Wonks podcast: “I’ve seen enough. Congratulations, Mayor-elect Katie Wilson.”
Stephen Paolini, who is affiliated with Katie Wilson’s PAC: “What?!?! … There are simply not enough ballots left to count for Bruce Harrell to recover and I’m comfortable saying definitely that Katie will be the next Mayor of Seattle … The only remaining question today is whether she will get above the 2,000 vote threshold and save us all the unnecessary drama of a machine recount. Which I can’t stress enough will absolutely not change the result of this election.”
Ben Anderstone, who worked on Sara Nelson’s campaign: “It’s over. Wilson wins. No way challenged ballots could make up that margin, even if there are technically more of them.
Michael Fertakis, who is busy with Girmay Zahilay’s transition team: “Katie is going to win this … She’ll get out of the automatic recount range, they’re at a 0.49 percent difference now. It’s over.”
BALANCING A BALLOT’S FOUR HUMORS
Let’s talk about the outstanding votes. As of blog time, there are a little more than 1,500 challenged ballots. Those ballots with signature problems can be “cured.” Follow these easy instructions to make sure your ballot was counted.
So far, according to King County Elections, 33 percent of challenged ballots have already been cured. In a typical election, around half of voters with challenged ballots resolve their ballot issues. Halei Watkins at King County Elections says it’s hard to tell how many voters will fix their ballots in a race that’s this close with campaigns reminding voters to check their ballots.
In recent memory, the highest response rate for challenged ballots came in the 2024 Primary Election, where King County Elections ended up doing a recount on the Public Lands Commissioner race.
“Sixty-nine percent of voters responded to resolve their challenge in that election,” Watkins says.
A similarly charged, tight race happened in December 2021 during the Kshama Sawant recall election. During that election, 67 percent of voters with challenged ballots responded to challenges.
Those signature challenge resolutions will keep coming in until November 24.
“Just like voting itself, we do tend to see a wave of folks responding on the final day,” Watkins said.
Regardless of all these challenged ballots, people like Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, are already calling Wilson mayor-elect.