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📌 Election Day is finally here. Let’s make sure it doesn’t suck.
When all the ballots are counted, if we’re lucky, we’ll have a new mayor, a new city council president, and a progressive caucus in City Hall. The dust won’t settle for a few days. The results may be unclear. And if trends hold, the earliest voters are the most conservative. If our polling bears out, at least in the mayor’s race, this will be a lot tighter than the primary.
Progressives really kicked ass in the primary. Presumed underdog Katie Wilson walked away with more than 50 percent of the vote. Mayor Bruce Harrell finished more than 9 points behind her. Embarrassing. City Attorney candidate Erika Evans took home almost 56 percent of the vote. City Council candidate Dionne Foster snagged 58 percent. County Executive Candidate Girmay Zahilay took home 44, compared to Claudia Balducci’s 30 (that race has really tightened up). City Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck swept her race with more than 70 percent of the vote. It was a great night for gloating.
But since then, political spending in the city’s moderate and conservative wings shot through the roof. Between Bruce Harrell’s campaign and his PAC, he’s packing more than $3 million. In a metaphysical sense, the political bones are hard to read. Dick Cheney is dead, but, also, Kamala Harris is here. What does it mean?
If you’re reading this and it’s not 8 p.m. yet, there’s still time to vote. But when the clock strikes 8 p.m., there won’t be time to vote. The deadline is 8 p.m. 8 p.m. is the deadline. Grab our cheat sheet and vote like the wind. Hi-yo, Silver. Here’s where all of the ballot drop boxes are. Bring a friend. Friends don’t let friends who voted in the primary not vote in the general election. Seriously. The winners are not guaranteed to stay winning. The losers will remain losers, but they may not lose.
While you agitate the citizenry, the Stranger Election Control Board will be scattered around the city, haunting candidates’ election parties, eating their snacks, eavesdropping on their conversations, and calling them at their homes as they (probably) lose surrounded by their friends and family.
6:21 p.m. Beacon Hill
SMILING AT OUR PHONE
According to The Hill, “Mamdani wins NYC mayor’s race.” This was declared on the first drop, which opened a 13% spread between Mamdani and Cuomo. As with Seattle, future drops are expected to maintain or expand this spread in a progressives favor. If we see those kind of numbers for Bruce Harrell, game is up. We will go to sleep like New York City: with a new mayor.
6:04 p.m. The City That Never Sleeps, The Big Apple
OOOOOOOOOO
Polls just closed in New York City. According to the New York Times, turnout surged to 2 million. Will Zohran Mamdani win? Will someone else even more terrible endorse Andrew Cuomo? Will Curtis Sliwa discover other hats, such as the baseball cap?
5:45 p.m. At Our House
CRYSTAL FINCHER DOESN’T REALLY MAKE PREDICTIONS BUT HERE ARE A FEW
Crystal Fincher, local political consultant and host of the Hacks & Wonks podcast, is “not a prediction person.” Just like all of us, she has no idea what’s going on in the King County Executive race. She’s “just looking to see what’s what.”
But she has a few thoughts on the city races: Dionne Foster is a shoo-in for City Council. Erika Evans has City Attorney in the bag. “Those primary results really did seem to be incompatible with a general election victory for those incumbents,” Fincher says. (In politico speak, that means they are screwed).
Fincher doesn’t think mayoral candidate Katie Wilson will win by the same margin she did on primary night, but she expects her to still have “the edge” on Mayor Bruce Harrell. The race will be competitive, though, thanks in large part to the buckets of money Harrell spent “attacking Katie.” Other races didn’t get as nasty.
“Certainly, Sara Nelson had attack ads against Dionne Foster, but we didn’t see those on during, like, the World Series, right?” Fincher says, referring to the ads Harrell ran during the American League Championship Series, which many will very sadly point out is quite different from the World Series. Still, big games!
Those ads got a lot of eyeballs, Fincher says, “especially from people who may not be primary voters, who may not vote as often or be as tuned in.” Will it make the difference?
That’s a “tall order,” she says.
5:30 p.m. The Beacon Hill Branch
THE DARKEST PLACE ON EARTH
Outside the Beacon Hill Light Rail station, we met a line of Girmay Zahilay volunteers, who asked: “Have you voted? Have you voted? HAVE YOU VOOOTTTEEDDD???”
At block away, a steady stream of voters dropped off their ballots at a box outside the library. It was pitch black. Can someone please bring some glow sticks? A camp light? Anything? A lovely “parent age” couple told us that they were A) Using the Stranger’s Voting Guide and B) dropping their ballots off tonight to capture some of the buzz they miss from voting in-person “from waaay before you were born.” Again, it was very dark.
5:03 p.m. Polar Bar at the Arctic Club Hotel
PROZAC LEVEL CALM BEFORE THE BALLOT DROP
Zero anxiety at state representative Brianna Thomas’s (34th District-West Seattle) early election night party. Turns out running unopposed is great for your cortisol levels. Appointed to fill Emily Alvarado’s seat earlier this year, the third time has proven to be the charm for Thomas, who has struck out twice running for Seattle City Council.
“It’s my third run for office, and being unopposed is certainly the best way to do it. Third time’s the charm, that’s what they say,” she says.
Despite low voter turnout leading up to today, she says the folks who are showing up actually give a damn: “The people who are showing up actually care about our futures, and they’re happy to hold us accountable.” She also made light of her electoral hat trick:
Gotta say, with former Vice President Kamala Harris a couple miles away giving a book talk at Benaroya Hall, it’s a fitting reversal to start the night off with a victorious Black woman.
She reminded procrastinators there was still time to vote. “Please go directly to the ballot box.”
Spotted at the party: King County Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda, Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine, former Seattle City Councilmember Lisa Herbold, and OneAmerica Executive Director Roxana Norouzi.
5:00 p.m. What We’re Watching for Tonight
A MAYORAL NAILBITER
This mayoral race? It’s going to be tight. That’s what the watchers on the wall, aka political consultants, say. However tonight goes, they do not think this will be an August Primary 2.0.
“The mayor’s race is going to be a nail biter,” says local political consultant Stephen Paolini, who is involved with Katie Wilson’s PAC.
The warchest of millions of dollars Harrell’s funneled into negative messaging against Wilson have been working, Paolini fears. He’s heard people parrot the line about Wilson’s lack of experience. That’ll narrow the gap, but may not overcome it, Paolini says.
“It seems difficult from a math standpoint for Bruce Harrell to overcome a nine point gap in the primary with only 5 percent more people voting in a general election compared to the primary,” Paolini says.
Turnout is the difference-maker here, for both Wilson and Harrell. And it remains low. Harrell will need to make up a ground that he can’t cover with his regular voter base.
Paolini still thinks Wilson “pulls it out.” So do the political consultants the Seattle Times spoke to over the weekend. On Election Night, he’ll feel good if Wilson has 45 percent of the vote. Procrastinating progressives tend to vote later. Wilson will gain more votes in ballot drops throughout the week. “It would not be unusual for a progressive swing to account for five or six percentage points.”
Regardless, “this race is going to be really close.”
AN EXECUTIVE NAILBITER
The King County Executive race is gonna be tight. It’s progressive candidate (Grimay Zahilay) v. progressive-ish candidate (Claudia Balducci, who went moderate during the campaign) and according to recent polling, it’s a coin toss. Thirty-seven percent of voters said they’d vote for King County Councilmember Claudia Balducci, while 35 percent said Councilmember Girmay Zahilay was their guy (he was our guy from the start). The rest couldn’t make up their mind. The survey’s margin of error was +/- 4 percent, meaning the race was at a statistical tie.
OUR NAILS ARE LONG
The races for Seattle City Council and Seattle City Attorney seem buttoned up for progressives. Incumbents Sara Nelson and Ann Davison appear cooked. Boiled. Roasted. Flambéd. They’re probably done. Out of here. Out of sight, out of mind. Maybe.
“I would be, at this point, really shocked if any of those other races were as close [as the mayor’s race],” local political consultant Stephen Paolini says.
It’s definitely difficult from a math standpoint. He’s anticipating the District 9 race between Dionne Foster and Nelson to end with a decisive Foster win. “I think she’ll be over 50 in the first drop, and it will just get worse for Sarah over time,” he says.
He expects the same thing for Erika Evans in her race against City Attorney Davison.
As for Eddie Lin’s race against skateboarder and DJ (and also candidate) Adonis Ducksworth, Paolini expects Lin to be in a comfortable position after tonight. But he’s not counting any skateboards before they ollie. “If I’m in Eddie Lin’s shoes, I’m happy, I’m popping champagne if we’re at like 48 percent,” he says.